In 2018, the Human Capital Index (HCI) value in Kazakhstan was 0.59, in 2020 it increased to 0.63. However, the 2020 report also presents back-calculated data for 2018, according to which Kazakhstan’s HCI for this period is 0.78.
| Kazakhstan HCI | 2020 | 2018 | 2018 (back-calculated) | 2010 |
| 0,63 | 0,56 | 0,78 | 0,59 |
According to the HCI-2020, citizens of Kazakhstan, born in 2020, by the age of 18, will realize their potential by 63% compared to how they could perform with fully developed education and health systems (in “ideal” conditions). To compare, the global average HCI is 0.56. All data used for calculations was collected by the World Bank before the COVID-19 pandemic.
| HCI component | Boys | Girls | Overall |
| HCI | 0.61 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| Probability of survival to age 5 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| Expected years of schooling | 13.6 | 13.8 | 13.7 |
| Harmonized test scores (в 2020 году использовались результаты PISA 2018) | 411 | 422 | 416 |
| Learning-adjusted years of school | 8.9 | 9.3 | 9.1 |
| Adult survival rate | 0.78 | 0.91 | 0.84 |
| Fraction of children under 5 not stunted | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 |
As the authors note, in Kazakhstan, as in many other countries, there is a clear correlation between the level of human capital development and GDP per capita. Nevertheless, there are countries in which the level of human capital is significantly higher than what could be expected based on the level of the country’s income – including the Kyrgyz Republic, Estonia, Vietnam.
Among the components of the HCI given in the table above, two assess the level of health – the survival rate of the adult population, which is calculated as the proportion of 15-year-olds who live to 60 years, and the share of children not stunted. According to experts, the growth in human capital in Kazakhstan in 2020 (0.63) compared to 2010 (0.59) is mainly due to the improvement of these two indicators. Thus, the adult survival rate in Kazakhstan is 84%, and the proportion of stunted children under 5 years of age is 8%.
As for the indicators of education, as the authors note, indicators of the quality of education have significantly deteriorated in Kazakhstan – according to the LAYS calculations, out of the forecasted 13.3 years of schooling students will master the volume of knowledge equal to only 9.1 years. For comparison, in the 2018 Index, this indicator for the Republic of Kazakhstan was equal to 11.5 years.
The peculiarity of this methodology for calculating Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling is that, unlike the approaches of other rankings (when only the total years of study in the country are used as an indicator of education), it allows us to understand the actual amount of knowledge children will acquire while in preschool, primary and secondary education.
World Bank experts note significant inequality in the education system of Kazakhstan and alarming forecasts in due to the coronavirus pandemic. A child born in the 20% of the richest families today has a chance of reaching 64% of his potential productivity, while a child born in the 20% of the poorest families will reach only 53% of his potential.
In addition, as Harry Patrinos (Practice Manager for the Europe and Central Asia Region) commented during the presentation of the Kazakhstan results, 7 out of 10 students in Kazakhstan may be functionally illiterate due to learning losses because of the COVID-19 pandemic. which will reduce their expected revenues by 2.9% and could lead to total economic losses in the country up to 1.9 billion US dollars per year.
For more information on the Human Capital Index and indicators of the Republic of Kazakhstan, please check the links below.
Source:
- World Bank (2020) “The Human Capital Index 2020 Update: Human Capital in the Time of COVID-19”. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34432
- World Bank (2020) “Human Capital Index 2020.Kazakhstan” https://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/hci/HCI_2pager_KAZ.pdf?cid=GGH_e_hcpexternal_en_ext
