Scenario is a method used within strategic foresight that is intentionally fictional, and never contains predictions or recommendations. Participation and dialogue are indispensable to the effective use of scenarios. Scenarios are sets of alternative futures (usually three or four to compare) in the form of snapshots or stories giving an image of a future context. They are constructed for the purpose of learning and taking action in the present. This is achieved by generating, testing, and reframing ideas about what might happen.
The tables below cover the main areas such as Goals and functions, Organisation and structures, and The teacher workforce for the 4 scenarios for the Future of Schooling.
Scenario 1: Schooling extended
Goals and functions: Participation in formal education continues to expand. Academic certificates continue to be the main passports to economic and social success. The curriculum rises to the fore, with countries operating a common curriculum and assessment tools.
Organisation and structures: International public-private partnership powers digital learning environments. Learning resources and data are shared across countries. The organisation of instruction and student-teacher interactions remain mostly unchanged, although there is room for innovation.
The teacher workforce: More personalised learning alters the nature of teachers’ work, with subsequent impact on teacher education and professional development. There is marked division of tasks and greater diversification of professional profiles in school networks, which now benefit from larger economies of scale.
Scenario 2: Education outsourced
Goals and functions: Driven by greater parental involvement, diverse forms of private and community-based initiatives emerge as alternatives to schooling. Choice plays a key role: of those buying educational services and of those, such as employers, giving market value to different learning paths.
Organisation and structures: As education outsourcing expands, traditional bureaucratic governance and system-wide accountability shrinks. Greater choice in learning programmes (length, scope, cost, etc.) provides learners with flexibility to move at their own pace.
The teacher workforce: There is greater variety of teaching profiles and working arrangements, with implications for professional and reputational status. Learning networks, such as massive digital learning platforms, bring different human resources together according to perceived needs.
Scenario 3: Schools as learning hubs
Goals and functions: Schools retain most of their functions, but new forms of competence recognition systems liberate them from pressures of credentialism. Systems are no longer based on uniformity: Local actors develop their own initiatives to realise the values they consider important.
Organisation and structures: Experimentation and diversity of pedagogies are the norm. Personalised pathways are strengthened within a framework of collaborative work. Activities are planned in the context of broader learning ecosystems, mapping opportunities across an interconnected network of educational spaces.
The teacher workforce: Knowledgeable, networked teachers coexist with diverse individual and institutional players offering a variety of skills and expertise. Strong partnerships leverage the resources of external institutions, such as museums, libraries, residential centres, technological hubs and more.
Scenario 4: Learn-as-you-go
Goals and functions: Digitalisation has made it possible to assess and certify knowledge, skills and attitudes in a deep and almost instantaneous manner. Learning opportunities are widely available for “free”, marking the decline of established curriculum structures and dismantling the school system.
Organisation and structures: Education builds on digital technology and artificial intelligence to leverage collective intelligence and solve real-life problems. Dismantling of schooling systems and repurposing of its infrastructure. Distinctions between education, work and leisure become blurred.
The teacher workforce: Difficult to envision the role of governments vis-à-vis markets and civil society. Data ownership and its geopolitical implications are key. Traditional teaching professionals vanish as individuals become “prosumers” (professional consumers) of their learning.
The goals and functions of education are complex and intertwined.
The goals of education are intertwined with the daily reality of schools and take different shapes and weights depending on each specific context. Childcare and safety are the first priority for many parents who need to balance working and family life. For others, reduced school hours can work well as long as more flexible working arrangements or sufficient social and financial capital permit them to fulfil this role outside the framework of schooling.
Education is also the means for individuals to acquire professional and personal competencies and to develop as independent citizens. This entails building the cognitive, social and emotional skills needed for a world of rapid change where students enter increasingly diverse careers. This is an enormous challenge, as schools face growing demands to provide all students with greater technical skills and an ever-growing base of academic knowledge at the same time as they are expected to help students develop careful reflection, critical analysis and diverse, creative forms of expressivity.
Furthermore, knowledge and skills acquired through schooling risk becoming quickly outdated in an age where knowledge grows exponentially and labour market expectations are diverse and rapidly shifting. Education systems need to move to the model based on lifelong learning, which allows individuals to pursue diverse learning trajectories throughout their academic and professional lives.
Finally, as the OECD experts underline, what we understand as schooling today will continue to exist in the future as long as individuals find it valuable (for academic learning and personal and civic development, care, socialisation and certification). In an increasingly networked and diverse society, the future of institutionalised education will depend on its ability to bridge different worlds, and to remain relevant to the needs of individuals and society.
Source:
OECD (2020), Back to the Future of Education: Four OECD Scenarios for Schooling, Educational Research and Innovation, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/178ef527-en.
